Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is out. After nine years of a Liberal and New Democratic Party (NDP) controlled government, wavering support is showing cracks within the current Canadian House of Commons.
Accelerated by the election of Donald Trump in the most recent United States presidential election, events have developed rather quickly for our friends in the north. After Trudeau announced his intention to resign as party leader and prime minister, the Liberal Party was plunged into a leadership contest to determine who will take helm of the ship that is the Canadian Parliament.
Consequently, Parliament is suspended until March while this process takes place, blocking the Conservative Party from being able to call for early elections. This move would likely lead to a massive loss of Liberal-controlled seats, and could lead to the Conservative Party’s largest share of seats within parliament in Canada’s history. Much like the Canadian special elections of 2021, the Liberal Party made no significant gains in seat count and led to an initial loss in poll numbers.
According to the most recent polling provided by the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC), the Conservative Party of Canada is polling at nearly 45%, with no other party besides the Liberals breaking 20%. Even the Liberals’ 21.5% in national polling paled in comparison to their past three election wins.
You can see the trouble both Liberals and the NDP are in even when looking at the raw seat count projected by the CBC. For only the second time in Canada’s history, there is a very real possibility that the largest opposition party to the Conservatives could be the Bloc Québécois, a Quebec-established party advocating for independence from the rest of Canada. The implications of this new potential governmental structure could greatly impact the way in which Canada’s political agenda is shaped in the near future domestically and internationally.
Taking a larger look at this strange political situation from an American perspective, one is left with a few key questions.
First, what led us to this unique situation we are in today? Secondly, what does this mean for the future of Canada? Lastly, is this any indication of a broader international trend?
In regards to the first question, it seems very clear: the worst inflation Canada has seen in decades, an increase in home prices, and a national food crisis (which has pushed 2 million people to seek food banks) have all occurred under Liberal leadership.
For Canada’s future, this means a few things. First and foremost, a Conservative government is almost guaranteed to take power during what is slated to be early elections when parliament reconvenes in spring. With that comes promises of lower inflation, an end to the cost-of-living crisis, and improved trade relations with the U.S.
Third, I would argue this shake-up of Canadian politics is reflective of global political shifts.
The political crisis comes just months after the U.S. elected Donald Trump as President. Plagued with issues similar to Canada’s, election results in the U.S. were a clear demand for a change in leadership. A historical example reminiscent of this sort of large-scale change occurred during the 2024 French legislative elections, which saw a massive shift to the right. This shift can be seen through social polling, in which as of October of 2024, 51% of French voters agreed that the current democratic institutions in France are not working. Additionally, the recipients of the poll stated that they would prefer a “strong power” to lead the nation opposed to the current government’s structure. While the left won the most seats in the last election cycle, the French National Rally, a far-right party, and its allies received the most votes, gaining over 37% of the popular vote in a government with four separate party factions.
Western nations are shifting to the right, and people must face that fact. As uneasy as it may feel, we must acknowledge why this is. Much like in Canada, the global economy has festered over the past five years due to COVID-19, the Russia-Ukraine war, Middle East instability, and the increased costs of Chinese trade.
People are fed up, and they want change. In recent history, parties with left-leaning policies have controlled many governments and institutions. Under this leadership, due to unfortunate circumstances or controllable missteps, social and economic policies have failed to satisfy a large number of voters.
I think it is shameful that at the same time, left parties internationally attack voters and parties for their election losses, they continue to make policies that do not benefit middle-class pocket books or goals. The tone deaf nature of this electoral strategy makes me wonder whether party leaders around the globe are ignorant or willfully blind.
I, for one, am in support of this shift to the right. Not for the reason some might expect.
A shift right essentially reflects a shift back towards the center; a shift to the voices of the silent majority of people who identify as “independent” in the American political system. What the U.S. needs again is an amplification of moderate and centrist ideas. If a consequence of that is a Republican-controlled government, I think the benefits plentifully outweigh most negatives.
The parties today around the world that claim to champion freedom of thought, expression, speech, and dissent are parties self-identified as right-wing. From France, to the U.S., to Canada, a new wave of leadership is coming — and with it, a new generation of people exposed to political ideas and ideologies that have been stifled for too long.
I think if we can learn anything from Canada, we can learn this: Conservatism and ideas to the right of center are not scary, it is sometimes just the case that the implementation is a cause of concern and fear. If anything, conservative policies should get a chance at implementation, and maybe become embraced into society.
While I am cautious about allowing power to be given to the far-right, I am realistic in recognizing that the center-right is economically beneficial for the middle class.
Maybe more people need this mindset to challenge themselves and accept change as a motivating positive force in our modern-day political atmosphere.
