As election day comes to a close, with the final polls being released and tens of millions of votes already having been cast, a clearer picture is starting to emerge of who will win the House, Senate, and presidency.
Firstly, let’s take a look at Congress.
In the House, all 435 seats are up for grabs, and in the Senate, control over 34 of the 100 seats will be decided. As it currently stands, the House has 220 Republicans, 215 Democrats, and three vacancies.The Senate is similarly tight, with 51 Democrats and 49 Republicans.
Firstly, I think that Republicans will retain control of the House by a small number of seats, as combined polling from Inside Elections predicts Republicans controlling 221 House seats and Democrats controlling 214. However, The Economist has Democrats winning control of the House 55% of the time and Republicans 45%.. These statistics predict close, but opposite outcomes, and it is important to consider the different samples that are used along with their associated margins of error — the small differences in the statistics shows that control of the House is a coin-toss.
Secondly, I’m convinced that Republicans will win the Senate and will have 52 of the 100 seats, including the Ohio Senate race, where Republican Bernie Moreno is gaining a slight lead on his opponent, which would make the Senate split 50/50. Republicans are all but certain to flip one Senate seat in West Virginia, with Republican Jim Justice leading, on average, by 33.5%, bringing the control of the Senate to 51 Republicans and 49 Democrats. In Montana, Republicans seem very likely to flip a Senate seat as well, with Republican Tim Sheehy leading, on average, by 4.5%, bringing the swaying Senate to 52 Republicans and 48 Democrats. There are a few other close races to look out for, and those races are all Republicans trying to dethrone Democrat incumbents.
Finally, I believe that Donald Trump will win the presidency — here’s why.
Trump is in the best polling position he has ever been in since 2015, being down to Harris by only 1% nationally, with some polls even showing consistent leads in swing states. In 2016, Trump was down 3.9% nationally on Hillary Clinton, and then he won 306 to 232. In 2020, he was down 8.4% nationally to Joe Biden and lost, but only by tens of thousands of votes in swing states. Polls have greatly underestimated Trump, and it’s hard to see that trend not continuing this cycle, although to a lesser extent than previous years.
Not only this, but early voting has been a significant change since the last election. In 2020, Democrats overwhelmingly voted early compared to Republicans. However, Republicans are not only voting early more, but Democrats are voting early less compared to this time in 2020. Voting early is a way to help as many people from a party cast their votes, as parties are able to focus on mobilizing smaller groups of individuals who have not yet voted; in addition, since Republicans turn out more heavily to vote in person than Democrats, it seems likely that, overall, turnout among Republicans will be higher than turnout among Democrats this election. Heavy early turnout from a party means less voters have to go out and vote on Election Day, meaning more resources can be allocated to ensuring everyone else votes in-person.
Currently, FiveThirtyEight Polls, a collection of the most reliable polls in the country, has Harris up 1.4% nationally. However, this does not indicate much, as the winning factor is the electoral college, with a few key states determining who will win. Harris is leading slightly in two swing states, Trump is leading slightly in three, and they are tied in the remaining two. Like the House, this is too close to call, and we can only speculate on the winner.
With all that said, this is just speculation, and the most important thing you can do is make your voice heard. Polls are never a definitive answer to what the outcome of an election will be, but they can give general ideas, and with this election in particular, it’s anyone’s guess who the next president will be.
